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NYSE AMEX Composite Index - 2003

YTD Price Probability

The following graph plots the year-to-date performance of the index for 2003 compared to the probability calculated by a random walk model.

Initial Value: 824.38

Hist. Volatility: 0.75%

Annual Drift: 7%

Final Value: 1173.55

Percentile: 94%

Predicted price distribution
Click on the image for the high resolution version.

The high to date and low to date prices of the stock plotted against a random walk model for 2003 (what's this?).